The Greg Smith poll showing Larry Grant leading Bill Sali has sparked some interest. Sali of course disputes it, and given the big change it does bear some scrutiny. But, as others have noted, the rest of the numbers seem about right so nothing explains why the Grant-Sali poll would be an anomaly. The point being, the poll may well be accurate.
Another clue that Sali is not doing so hot comes from Sali's press release. Sali's campaign manager Jessica Sali wrote in a press release
We do not intend to release the results of our own internal polling at this time, for reasons of our own;This is a revealing statement. First, they're not releasing their own polls. If they had good polls, no doubt they'd be bragging about them. I feel safe in assuming that their polls don't look good for Sali right now. Second, they're not even going to tell us why they won't release the polls.
On one hand, at least they didn't make up some lame lie: "I can't debate because my opponent is disruptive." On the other hand, they're not coming clean with the voters. I wouldn't expect them to trumpet bad news, but they're certainly not rebutting the assumption that their polls aren't good.
Also, so far Sali has refused to say how many folks paid to attend the Cheney and Hastert fundraiser, how many paid for a pic with Cheney, and how much money they raised. If those are good news stories for Sali, then this is a candidate who is in love with secrecy. If that's not the case, then the stories are probably bad news.
4 comments:
Actually they issued press releases at the time saying how much was raised and Mr. Smith's poll saying 64% of the voters are undecided really does stretch credability with a margin of error of +/- 7.4%. I also don't think poll numbers are that important for voters to know unless they're the stick their fingers in the wind type.
I think poll numbers are important for raising money. If a candidate seems to have little chance to win, people won't invest. If the candidate looks like a positive contender, people are more willing to donate some money.
Polls are also important to identify trends. If a candidate tries some strategy and the polls show a decline, change the strategy. If the strategy yields an increase, continue it.
Adam -- I don't suppose you have any links to those "press releases" saying how much was raised, do you? They certainly aren't up at his web site, and I think I would have remembered them if they were issued.
It is interesting if they're not releasing their own poll numbers.
Did Boise ever accept Sali's offer to pay for security for Cheney?
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