I see that Gov Otter has announced that he’s added State Sen. John McGee to his list to replace Larry Craig. This makes me wonder what the Gov is up to.
A few names surfaced immediately; Risch, Simpson, Kempthorne, and Sali. Simpson withdrew, and Kempthorne and Sali don’t seem to have much traction in the race. Otter has announced that he’s considering Lawrence Wasden, Dave Leroy, Dane Watkins, and now Sen. McGee. (Please note, all white males.)
Why the public announcements? By making names public, those not chosen could end up embarrassed, and will at least have a public disappointment. Also, it will tend to cause lobbying for this or that candidate, which hinders Otter’s freedom to make a decision.
On the other hand, I guess the candidates can say “The nomination is the honor. I’m humbled to be considered amongst such an august group.” Perhaps Otter wants the lobbying, to gauge support for or against a given candidate. Perhaps it’s a way to cause some of the folks to owe Otter a political debt; Sen McGee can now say he is senatorial material, and a favorite of the Gov. It might be a way to dilute the appeal of a candidate. If it’s only the first four, Risch, Simpson, Kempthorne, and Sali, then Risch is probably the best choice. Tossing the others into the figurative hat makes Risch a good choice, but not the only good choice.
Frankly, I think if Otter were inclined to appoint Risch, Otter would just keep his mouth shut, not mention other names, and appoint Risch at the right time. By adding all the other names, I think Otter is signaling that he’s not going to pick Risch. If your choice is there, why add others?
If Otter announces a minority candidate or two, we can assume he’s trying to play the diversity card.
One other thought. Publicizing names could also be a way to put pressure on Craig to make an irrevocable decision to resign. All these good Rs, standing by, waiting for Otter’s decision, which he can’t make until he knows Craig is actually resigning. If Otter announces a decision before Craig resigns, it’s clearly more pressure. Still, if I were Otter, I wouldn’t want to disappoint the unworthy unless and until I had to.
4 comments:
I think its window dressing for a choice already made, Alan. And I think he's picking state lawmakers in different regions of the state to show those constitutents he hasn't forgotten them and to advance the careers with free statewide publicity of moderate Republican lawmakers.
Your analysis focuses only on Otter. What you should also consider is that if Jim Risch didn't think he had a lock we'd be hearing alot more from him right now, scaring off rivals with a threat of a primary battle.
Sisyphus
If I were Otter I'd pick Leroy.
Sisyphus, I agree that Otter could be trying to make points around the state. But, if Risch were making threatening statements, like saying he's running regardless of who's appointed, it could annoy Otter, making it less likely Risch would get the nod, and it could annoy the R party potentates. The Rs are wanting unity for that seat above all. They are going have a tough enough time in the Senate come next election; they don't want to make a safe seat competitive.
Tara, Leroy has said he'd support Risch and not run against him, and Otter has stated that he doesn't intend to pick a place holder, so that would indicate that Leroy is right out.
Too bad. Leroy is a good fellow!
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