Over at Kos, some report shows the ID-01 district as likely Repub. Of course, we know that as of today it is probably an even race.
If I could figure out how to leave a comment on Kos I'd leave one to point this out. Those of you who are comment-literate may want to.
Also, perhaps someone can sniff out the "Cook's Report" and provide some info about why Sali is not a "likely" choice.
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Charlie Cook is perhaps one (if not the) best political forecaster in the country, his report, he is actually a very interesting guy if you ever get the chance to hear him speak.
What he is talking about with that report is the Partisan Voting Index or (PVI) is judges the likely hood of the outcome of an election based upon party rankings in a state, which is why Idaho has a +19 in that report.
What it doesn’t take into account is crossover, which is much harder to judge and more likely in a state like Idaho. In a state where both parties are represented somewhat the same in the population the PVI is a good judge of election outcome. However in a state like Idaho where one party dominates the other the PVI is not a very good predictor.
We know that there is a divide in Idaho’s Republican Party and a great deal of Republicans will cross over to vote for Grant this election. I think once the phone polling starts we’ll start seeing official numbers that will put Grant either equal to Sali or just behind. I also think once we get into the bare knuckle phase of the election season we’ll see Larry pull ahead of Grant.
So I wouldn’t pay too much attention to that report, it doesn’t really apply to Idaho, or namely to the 1st CD election. We’ve still got some time before we start seeing the hard numbers, and I’d suspect they’ll be leaning in our favor come election day.
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